National Risk Assessment Report highlights increasing burden of chronic disease.

The number of adults in Ireland with chronic conditions is set to increase by 40 per cent within the next ten years, a new government report has warned.

The rise in chronic disease, multi morbidity (where someone is suffering from two or more chronic conditions at the same time) coupled with an increasing ageing population and the resulting demand on healthcare provision, have all been identified as significant challenges in the Government’s latest National Risk Assessment Report.

According to the National Risk Assessment Report 2018- Overview of Strategic Risks, which was published this week, Ireland faces significant risks in terms of an ageing population.

The National Risk Assessment first published five years ago, is an annual report compiled by the Department of the Taoiseach, that seeks to identify and raise awareness of the key risks to Ireland’s future well-being.

The Report follows a consultation that aimed to stimulate and facilitate a national conversation about the risks facing Ireland, including an Open Policy Debate in April, and a four-week public consultation period on a draft version of the National Risk Assessment.

The risks are grouped across five different categories: geopolitical, economic, social, environmental and technological with an ageing population including pensions and health systems challenges listed under the social category.

The report noted that the “share of population aged 65 and over is projected to increase from one in eight to one in five by 2030, and the number of people aged 85 and over is projected to almost double. Older age cohorts tend to be the highest users of most health and social services and have more complex care needs.”

According to the report, “The significant increase in the number of people in older age cohorts will create significant additional demand for a range of health and social care services, including nursing home care, homecare, and medicines. Chronic diseases already account for a significant proportion of healthcare activity, including 40 per cent of hospital admissions and 75 per cent of hospital bed days.”

The report also notes that currently more than half or 60 per cent of people aged over 50 in Ireland have at least one chronic condition, 18 per cent have two or more and this is also set to increase.

“It is estimated that within the next decade, the number of adults with chronic diseases will increase by around 40 per cent, with relatively more of the conditions affecting those in the older age groups. The economic burden of healthcare expenditure in relation to chronic diseases is considerable, not only for the health system but also in terms of families and society as a result of reduced income, early retirement, an increased reliance on social care and welfare support and diminished productivity and absenteeism,” the report stated.

Changes to this year’s Report include the addition of two new risks, “Overheating in the Economy” and “Impact of Social Media on Public Debate”.